Three numbers tell you everything about a game: spread, moneyline, total. Here's the 5-minute guide that actually sticks — no jargon, no sportsbook account required.
Most Pick'em players have stared at "Chiefs -3.5 (-110)" without ever being given a clean explanation of what those numbers mean. You're going to get the version we wish someone had given us first — no jargon, no sportsbook account required.
A moneyline is just the price of picking a team to win.
The useful trick: every moneyline can be converted to an implied probability. A -150 favorite has roughly a 60% implied probability of winning. A +200 underdog has about 33%. Sharps spend their lives looking for spots where they think the real probability is higher than the implied probability. That's "value."
The spread evens out the matchup. If the Bills are -6.5 against the Colts:
Most spreads are priced at -110 on both sides, meaning the sportsbook is taking a small cut (the "vig" or "juice") and treating the spread as roughly a 50/50 proposition.
Key numbers matter in football. Three and seven are the two most common margins of victory in the NFL — they map to a field goal and a touchdown plus extra point. That's why a spread at -3 is meaningfully different from -2.5 or -3.5. A half-point near a key number can flip a pick.
A total is the combined points scored by both teams. Bills/Colts at 47.5 means you're picking whether the final combined score will be 48 or higher (over) or 47 or lower (under). Totals are the cleanest expression of pace and matchup style — high totals signal high-scoring offenses or weak defenses, low totals signal slow pace or bad weather.
Every game has all three lines, and they have to agree mathematically. If a team is a -7 favorite with a -300 moneyline, a +280 moneyline on the underdog, and a 47-point total, those numbers imply the favorite is expected to score around 27 and the underdog around 20.
On most flat Pick'em platforms, picking a -300 favorite is worth the same as picking a +300 underdog: one point. That's why everyone picks chalk and the games are decided by coin flips.
BenchBrawl's scoring engine converts the actual odds into points. A +300 underdog win is worth six times more than a -300 favorite win. Picking favorites isn't wrong — but blindly picking favorites is how you finish in the middle of the pack. Reading the odds is the entire game.
This article is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and BenchBrawl is not a financial advisor. Every pick you make should be your own informed decision.
Sources
No purchase necessary. Void where prohibited. State restrictions apply.
Most Pick'em players have stared at "Chiefs -3.5 (-110)" without ever being given a clean explanation of what those numbers mean. You're going to get the version we wish someone had given us first — no jargon, no sportsbook account required.
A moneyline is just the price of picking a team to win.
The useful trick: every moneyline can be converted to an implied probability. A -150 favorite has roughly a 60% implied probability of winning. A +200 underdog has about 33%. Sharps spend their lives looking for spots where they think the real probability is higher than the implied probability. That's "value."
The spread evens out the matchup. If the Bills are -6.5 against the Colts:
Most spreads are priced at -110 on both sides, meaning the sportsbook is taking a small cut (the "vig" or "juice") and treating the spread as roughly a 50/50 proposition.
Key numbers matter in football. Three and seven are the two most common margins of victory in the NFL — they map to a field goal and a touchdown plus extra point. That's why a spread at -3 is meaningfully different from -2.5 or -3.5. A half-point near a key number can flip a pick.
A total is the combined points scored by both teams. Bills/Colts at 47.5 means you're picking whether the final combined score will be 48 or higher (over) or 47 or lower (under). Totals are the cleanest expression of pace and matchup style — high totals signal high-scoring offenses or weak defenses, low totals signal slow pace or bad weather.
Every game has all three lines, and they have to agree mathematically. If a team is a -7 favorite with a -300 moneyline, a +280 moneyline on the underdog, and a 47-point total, those numbers imply the favorite is expected to score around 27 and the underdog around 20.
On most flat Pick'em platforms, picking a -300 favorite is worth the same as picking a +300 underdog: one point. That's why everyone picks chalk and the games are decided by coin flips.
BenchBrawl's scoring engine converts the actual odds into points. A +300 underdog win is worth six times more than a -300 favorite win. Picking favorites isn't wrong — but blindly picking favorites is how you finish in the middle of the pack. Reading the odds is the entire game.
This article is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and BenchBrawl is not a financial advisor. Every pick you make should be your own informed decision.
Sources
No purchase necessary. Void where prohibited. State restrictions apply.